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How Trump's 2024 Bid & Jan 6 Committee's Effort to Delegitimize Him May Pan Out_我的网站

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A | "I think it would be best for President Trump to hold-back on an early announcement," said Earl Rasmussen, executive vice-president of Eurasia Group. "An early announcement may be a distraction from the very critical mid-term Congressional races and provide a mechanism to mobilize the Democratic base. Currently, it looks as if there will be a landslide of historic proportions resulting in a 'Red Tidal Wave' switching both the House and the Senate to a sizable Republican majority.",Politico and the Washington Post reported last week that Trump had met with top Republican donors, discussing the midterms and a potential Trump 2024 campaign. The Post quoted one Trump ally who, speaking on conditions of anonymity, put the odds at “70-30 he announces [his presidential bid] before the midterms.” Others did not rule out that he may announce it sooner than September.,"My own view is that President Trump would better campaign for the candidates he is supporting," explained Rasmussen. "This would give extra attention to the importance of local races; provide his support to the congressional candidates while at the same time getting visibility nationwide without the focus on himself. This could be very positive for the Republican Party and the Trump movement.",Meanwhile, 49% of Republicans place Trump at the top of their list of potential presidential candidates, with Florida Governor Rick DeSantis sitting on 25%, noted US political analyst Don DeBar.,Similarly, a poll by Morning Consult/Politico released on June 29 indicated that Trump has maintained his position among GOP voters, with the majority saying they'd vote for him in a 2024 Republican presidential primary. At the same time, candidates who have either been endorsed or supported by Trump were largely successful during the GOP primaries.,"Should the economy continue to tumble downward, and if the war in Ukraine continues to induce fear of a global conflagration, Republicans may find Trump invaluable, if not indispensable, in capturing both houses of Congresses and a number of state legislatures as well," said DeBar.,Poll: Biden's Economic Approval Rating at 30%, Lower Than Nadirs for Trump and ObamaYesterday, 16:59 GMT,Dems Seeking to Reinvigorate Bases,Democratic strategists are hoping a Trump pre-midterm announcement might help Democrats galvanize their base.,"The American electorate is highly polarized by party, and a combination of a five year wall-to-wall media campaign attacking Trump, along with constant legal and procedural attacks by Democrats, the 'intelligence community' and other organs of what has become known as 'the deep state' has placed him in the role of public enemy number one in the eyes of Democrats," explained DeBar.,This situation, along with Trump's popularity among Republicans and the loss of legitimacy of GOP establishment politicians, "has also created a deep cleavage within that party along the lines of pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republican officials," according to the political analyst.,"As for energizing Democrats to come out and vote against those associated with Trump, clearly this is a part of the Democrat's strategy - the January 6 show hearings are prima facie evidence of this," he said. "But that is a strategy that has failed a number of times, beginning with the 2016 election. And the fact that Biden's numbers are at the same level as Richard Nixon's on the day before he resigned in disgrace means, absent some miraculous turnaround in the economy and a return to normalcy in eastern Europe, Democrats will go down in flames in the fall no matter the type or intensity of mobilization of their voters by any negative campaign based upon hatred of Trump.",House Jan. 6 Committee Subpoenas Secret Service Over Alleged Missing Text Messages on Capitol Breach16 July, 12:44 GMT,House Select Committee on Jan 6 Attack,The Dems apparently hope that the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 protests may throw sand in the gears of Trump and the Make America Great Again movement.,According to Politico, the panel's "much-anticipated hearing" will happen on Thursday. It is expected to feature former Trump White House press aide Sarah Matthews and former Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger. Moreover, committee members, aides and allies say that their investigations and hearings will continue past November, with the only "hard deadline" being January 3, 2023, "when Republicans likely take over the House," Politico reports.,"The committee is a circus!" said Rasmussen. "It is even more tragic than the [Special Counsel Robert] Mueller investigation. We have hundreds of people, many held without charges, being kept and tried as political prisoners. This is not about justice; it is criminal what is happening to patriotic people exercising their right to be heard with many being lured onto Capitol grounds. The hearings are a tragedy to our nation’s underlying values.",Rasmussen projects that the Dems "will try to drag the Committee hearings out as long as possible" even though they have not received the reaction that was sought for. The Democratic Party has a lot of failing policies and hearings apparently serve as a sort of distraction. The think tank executive vice president does not think that the Dem’s effort poses an obstacle for Trump, however, like the Mueller Investigation, it could provide additional challenges.,"Clearly, the January 6 Committee is attempting to do a (former President of Brazil) Lula on Trump - tie him up in criminal and other court proceedings to render him either legally or politically ineligible to run, in order to prevent him from winning another term," said DeBar.,However, the political analyst suggested that efforts to delegitimize Trump could prompt fierce resistance from his multi-million base. DeBar does not rule out that "if Trump is barred from running through a process that appears illegitimate in front of those voters, there is a real possibility that it could provoke an actual - and not play-pretend - insurrection, which could, in turn, lead to open civil war."。 4月24日消息，上海市人大常委会原党组书记、主任董云虎涉嫌受贿一案，由国家监察委员会调查终结，经最高人民检察院指定，由安徽省合肥市人民检察院审查起诉。近日，合肥市人民检察院已向合肥市中级人民法院提起公诉。　　检察机关起诉指控：被告人董云虎利用担任中央外宣办（国务院新闻办）七局局长，西藏自治区党委常委、宣传部部长，上海市委常委、宣传部部长，上海市政协党组书记、主席，上海市人大常委会党组书记、主任等职务上的便利，为他人谋取利益，或者利用职权、地位形成的便利条件，通过其他国家工作人员职务上的行为，为他人谋取不正当利益，非法收受他人财物，数额特别巨大，依法应当以受贿罪追究其刑事责任。　　公开资料显示，董云虎出生于1962年12月，浙江仙居人，曾任中央对外宣传办公室副主任、国务院新闻办公室副主任，西藏自治区党委常委、宣传部部长，上海市委常委、宣传部部长等职，2018年1月任上海市政协主席，2023年1月任上海市人大常委会主任。　　2023年7月，61岁的董云虎于任上被查，12月被开除党籍、公职。　　经查，董云虎丧失理想信念，背离初心使命，违背党中央关于人民政协工作的部署要求，将政协委员资格等私相授受，在政治上造成不良影响，对党不忠诚不老实，对抗组织审查，搞迷信活动；　　无视中央八项规定精神，违规收受礼品礼金，大肆接受可能影响公正执行公务的宴请；违反组织原则，在组织函询时不如实说明问题，违规为他人职务晋升提供帮助；　　廉洁底线失守，长期占有公物，由他人支付应由其个人支付的费用，搞权色交易；干预和插手司法活动；　　贪婪无度，把公权力当作谋取私利的工具，大搞权钱交易，利用职务便利为他人在融资贷款、土地出让、企业经营等方面谋利，并非法收受巨额财物。

B | 　　据媒体报道，就在落马前两天，董云虎还赴上海某单位调研并与专家学者座谈交流。值得一提的是，董云虎是二十大以来首位落马的正部级“老虎”，也是二十大以来上海首“虎”。　　（透视社综合中央纪委国家监委网站、央视新闻、浙江日报·潮新闻、长安街知事报道）　　编辑/视频：刘淞菱校对：李旭颖　　审核：龚紫陌。