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A | India and emerging market economies (EMEs) will gain “substantially,” reckoned experts, as Japan-based Nomura Holdings predicts “multiple recessions” for the world’s major economies over the next 12 months.,Nomura Holdings on Monday noted that the US, Eurozone, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Canada will fall into recession amid tightening government policies and rising living costs.,“A recession in developed countries can result in heightened interest of Foreign Portfolio Investors towards emerging markets, including India, which is the fastest-growing major economy in the world”, Pranav Haldea, managing director of Prime Database, told Sputnik.,Haldea blames the US Fed rate hike aimed at controlling the rising living costs for the current capital outflow from emerging markets, saying interest rates in the US have a huge bearing on FPI flows.,Foreign investors dumped Indian shares worth $6.4 billion in June — the highest net outflow in over two years. Foreign investors withdrew $27.9 billion from Indian equities in the first six months of 2022.,“Once the current rate hike cycle shows signs of abating, FPIs shall again look at emerging markets with renewed interest”, Haldea reckoned.,Economists observe Fed missteps such as the delayed response to inflation, which the latter labeled “transitory” until March this year, hamper economic activity in the US. The US recorded 8.6 percent inflation in May, the highest in four decades.,Massive inflationary pressure is also hindering growth in European economies such as Germany, Spain, and France, which registered 7.6, 10, and 5.2 percent price rises in May, respectively. Inflation in the UK is running at 9.1 percent.,US Unlikely to Avoid Severe Recession if Fed Hikes Interest Rates Too Quickly to Cool Inflation2 July, 02:42 GMT,Economists warn of spreading high inflation beyond commodities to services items, rentals, and wages.,Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying wrote in a research note that there are increasing signs that the world economy is entering a “synchronized growth slowdown, meaning countries can no longer rely on a rebound in exports for growth”.,Professor Manoj Pant, a prominent economist and vice chancellor at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, said that emerging markets would also be affected by a decline in trade; still, some factors may lessen the impact.,“The factors which are operating in our favor are that the bulk of the buying consumers are located in India, and the current geopolitical situation means a lot of countries are looking at India not as a complete replacement, but as a possible third area apart from China and Vietnam”, Pant told Sputnik.,Nomura forecasts a prolonged recession in the United States and a much deeper slump in Europe if Russia entirely cuts off gas to the region.,Despite the global headwinds, the Indian economy is predicted to grow at 7.2 percent in the current fiscal, much higher than any other major global economy.,Experts advise Indian policymakers to capitalize on the structural changes that began in 2016-17 onwards but that were interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.,“The world is moving much more towards services than manufacturing. China’s boom was based on manufacturing, the services boom will have to be in India. So the question is how well we are able to take account of that. So depending on us, we can actually gain substantially, if we are ready”, Pant added.,However, Pant labeled the new forecast as a continuation of the 2019 recessions, as there has been no boom registered anywhere in the world since then.,China infuses immense hopes to all the developing economies, as economists bet on demand from the world's second-largest economy to mitigate negative impacts, even though they face slowing export demand from the US and Europe.。本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、从细节看，特朗普软化退出的可能性； 2、波动中寻找机会，可能的潜力赛道；如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、从细节看，特朗普软化退出的可能性全球股票市场似乎仍未摆脱整体的震荡局面。昨晚美国股市高开低走，科技板块跌幅为0.7%，这产生了一定的连带效应。今天早晨，日本和韩国股市开盘即跌，跌幅超过2%；中国股市表现相对较好，沪深300指数小幅跟跌0.9%。

B | 现在全球局势又显得“山雨欲来风满楼”，到底发生了什么？是不是中东这边又出现了变数？我们认为，这一次市场的震荡看起来更像是一场“假摔”——并不是伤筋动骨，而是因为一些老剧本来来回回“拉抽屉”导致的小波动。我们先看一下美伊双方现在的谈判进展到了什么程度。先来看伊朗，伊朗现在的姿态比较高，似乎有点转守为攻的意思。

C | 第一，在公开场合不给特朗普面子，否认与特朗普谈判，而且其官方也表示不参加巴基斯坦主持的相关调解会议。第二，威胁战争升级，声称如果美国攻击伊朗的发电设施，就会让整个中东地区停电。

D | 如果前两点只被看作口头上的强硬，第三点实际行动确实做出了一些威胁。首先是伊朗议会批准了对霍尔木兹海峡收费的法案，意思是以后从这里经过的船只，伊朗都要收费。以前并非如此，那里本是国际通行水域。个人之前曾在音频中谈到，伊朗其实是用这种方法变相索要战争赔款。好的结果是这只是某一段时间的收费，坏的结果则是永久性地“收到天荒地老”，最终妥协可能只在于时间长短。本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。